From drought to checkout: why your food bill is about to soar

Get ready for the great grocery squeeze

From drought to checkout: why your food bill is about to soar

Intro

Bread, milk, vegetables, meat and even biscuits are all heading in one direction: up. Heatwaves, drought and failing harvests are driving food prices higher across the world, and Britain is about to feel the effects. From parched fields in Europe to dried-out farmland in North America, extreme weather is hitting food supplies at exactly the moment the UK needs to import more. The result is likely to be higher prices, fewer bargains and another painful blow for families already struggling to make ends meet.

The global food picture

Food prices are rising again with the weather as the main driver.

After a period of easing, global food prices are climbing because extreme heat, drought and erratic rainfall are hitting harvests across many continents at the same time.

Heatwaves are destroying yields in Europe

France, Spain, Italy and Eastern Europe have all reported lower wheat, maize and vegetable yields. UK farmers are saying vegetables will be smaller and more expensive too.

The EU grain harvest is expected to fall sharply after repeated heat spikes and water shortages. Olive oil, fruit, veg and cereals are all going down in supply and up in price.

Drought is hitting exporters

The US Midwest is facing severe dryness too and the Canadian prairie yields are down. Parts of South America are struggling with water scarcity.

Global supply

When multiple regions lose crops at once, global markets react fast and prices rise.

The UN’s food price index is edging upward again

After falling for a few months, the index has begun to tick up due to price rises for cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, dairy and meat.

Extreme weather is now the biggest single factor.

THE UK PICTURE

The UK is facing:

• heat‑stressed wheat and barley

• poor vegetable yields

• early harvests caused by heat

• water shortages in key growing regions

Farmers are warning that most foods they grow are at risk from potatoes to fruit. Lower domestic yields mean the UK must import more food, just at the same time as global prices are rising. That’s the double whammy.

When it comes to meat and dairy produce, animals have no grass to eat in the parched fields. They’re already being fed on what would have been the supplies for the winter and many farmers have no idea how they will afford to buy in feed to keep their animals alive over the winter. Crops grown for animal feed are affected by weather and shortages too.

UK SHOPPERS

Food prices will rise again, especially staples like bread, cereals, vegetables and dairy which are all heavily affected by heat and drought.

More price volatility in supermarkets

When the UK relies more on imports, prices move with global markets and they mostly go up. We can expect sudden jumps in some foods and shorter discount periods. There are likely to be fewer offers and more products at the same price for less.

British produce will be more expensive

At home heat‑damaged crops cost more to grow, harvest and store and farmers will pass some of that cost on.

Imports

If global shortages get worse, the UK, which imports around half of its food will feel it quickly.

Processed foods will rise too

When wheat, sugar, oils and dairy rise, everything made from them rises so our biscuits, crisps and ready meals will cost more too.

Cold‑chain costs rise in heatwaves

Retailers have to invest in refrigeration and cooling systems that are reliable in higher temperatures and those costs feed into shelf prices.

Low‑income households: spend a higher share of income on food. Most already buy the own brands and cheaper options so there’s little room to bring the food bills down.

Small retailers: are facing higher wholesale prices, refrigeration costs and lower shopper numbers during heatwaves so the amount of money they’re making is reducing from already low amounts.

Hospitality: Restaurants, cafés and takeaways will see higher ingredient costs and menu prices will have to go up so customers will spend less and go out less often.

More Inflation

The picture looks a bit bleak. When the rain does come there’s the danger that the ground is so hard and dry, instead of soaking in the ground floods which washes away any food that might still be growing.

Global food prices are rising again because heatwaves and drought are hitting harvests across the world. The UK’s own yields are falling due to extreme heat and lack of rain. That means the UK must import more food, at a time when global prices are already climbing.

Shoppers will face higher prices, fewer offers, more volatility and rising costs on everyday staples. This is inflation in action and it’s climate‑driven and may be only just beginning.